Concurrent Threats in the Near East

With the intelligence community's resources focused on Iran, the community is neglecting the concurrent threats in the Near East of state instability and regional terrorism.

The events of the Arab Spring and the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq have resulted in several states facing domestic protests, civil conflict, and even failure. The government of Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Iraq must resist divisive elements and improve state capacity. Syria's civil conflict continues, with the fate of the Assad regime unclear and a divided opposition.

These situations are all extremely volatile, with events on the ground fast-moving and our knowledge of the various factions limited. The greatest risk would be the rapid collapse of any of these states into civil war, generating further instability and the expansion of the conflict as competing regional powers seek to influence the outcome. At risk are American access to oil supplies, the region's stability, and recent progress towards democratic transition.

Terrorist attacks in the Near East may directly target US and allied interests. The high profile but poorly executed Iranian attacks against Israeli diplomats are an alarming escalation in the Israeli-Iranian covert war, and their failure could propel Iran to unleash a new wave of state-sponsored terrorism against Israel. By comparison, the shootings by Mohamed Merah in France highlight the continued dangers of lone wolf operatives. America's counter terrorism efforts are complicated by the regional instability.

Terrorism in the Near East is a volatile threat that has direct implications for American interests. The global jihadist movements continue to plot, and the mounting pressure on Iran may generate increased activity. Targets could include American or allied military and diplomatic sites or key economic infrastructure like oil pipelines, generating a loss of life and wealth.

America must remain focused on terrorism especially because of the large lag time associated with penetrating networks. Every moment we do not maintain our vigilance is another in which it has become too late to intercept and interrupt an emerging plot.